Border Tensions Increase After North Korea Fires Shots At South Korean Post

David Goodhue – AHN News Reporter

Hwacheon, South Korea (AHN) – North Korea’s military fired two shots at a South Korean post near the two countries’ border on Friday.

The incident happened in the town of Hwacheon, which is about 73 miles northeast from the South Korean capital of Seoul, according to the South Korean news agency Yonhap.

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the shots to the news agency.

The incident happens amid an increasingly tense time for the two countries. Earlier this year, a South Korean warship was sunk by what South Korea and the United States say was a torpedo fired by a North Korean vessel.

Forty six South Korean sailors were killed in the March 10 attack.

South Korean and U.S. defense officials also worry about the handover of power in North Korea from Kim Jong-il to his youngest son, Kim Jong-un. The elder Kim, 68, had recently suffered a stroke. His son, a four-star general, is only in his 20s.

The precarious situation prompted the U.S. and South Korea to sign an agreement earlier this month strengthening already close military ties.

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Seoul probes N.Korean general’s promotion

Seoul is investigating whether a demoted North Korean general has won back his former rank as a reward for the sinking of a South Korean warship, an official said Monday.

North Korean TV footage and a still photo released over the weekend showed Kim Myong-Guk wearing a uniform with four stars on the collar.

Kim, who heads the general staff’s operations bureau, had been demoted to a three-star general in January, earlier photos showed.

“We are trying to check what’s behind his promotion,” a Seoul intelligence official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“We are trying to see if the promotion was related to the sinking of the Cheonan but have reached no conclusions yet.”

There was speculation that Kim had lost a star to take responsibility for a naval clash near the inter-Korean border last November which left a North Korean patrol boat in flames.

On March 26 a explosion sank the Cheonan, a 1,200-tonne South Korean corvette, near the countries’ border with the loss of 46 lives.

Seoul officials suspect a torpedo attack — possibly in revenge for the November clash. They have not so far publicly blamed Pyongyang pending a full-scale multinational investigation.

The general — sporting his four stars — was shown briefing the North’s leader Kim Jong-Il in front of a camouflaged military base at an undisclosed location.

JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said Kim was not among those named in a mass promotion of generals to mark this month’s birth anniversary of the North’s founder Kim Il-Sung.

“It is extremely rare for a general who wasn’t included in the main promotion to move up a rank in a separate move,” an unidentified official told the paper.

“We’re trying to determine whether Kim’s promotion was related to the Cheonan sinking.”

South Korea Sunday began five days of national mourning for the victims, with public shrines set up in Seoul and other cities. A photo exhibition opened in Seoul in their memory.

President Lee Myung-Bak, accompanied by senior government officials, on Monday joined a stream of mourners to pay homage at an altar outside City Hall.

Suspicion has increasingly fallen on North Korea despite its denial of involvement.

Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young said Sunday a torpedo attack — creating a bubble jet which tore the ship apart — was among the most likely causes of the sinking.

Yoon Duk-Yong, co-chairman of an investigation team including US and Australian experts, also said Sunday a non-contact explosion was the likely cause.

The disputed Yellow Sea border was the scene of deadly naval clashes in 1999 and 2002, as well as of last November’s firefight.

The North on Friday seized South Korean assets at a mountain resort in its territory, warning that the two countries were on the brink of war over claims in Seoul about the sinking.

THE SINKING OF THE CHEONAN

Obama tells military: prepare for North Korea aggression

(Reuters) – President Barack Obama has directed the U.S. military to coordinate with South Korea to “ensure readiness” and deter future aggression from North Korea, the White House said on Monday.

The United States gave strong backing to plans by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to punish North Korea for sinking one of its naval ships, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said in a statement.

The White House urged North Korea to apologize and change its behavior, he said.

“We endorse President Lee’s demand that North Korea immediately apologize and punish those responsible for the attack, and, most importantly, stop its belligerent and threatening behavior,” Gibbs said.

“U.S. support for South Korea’s defense is unequivocal, and the president has directed his military commanders to coordinate closely with their Republic of Korea counterparts to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression,” he said.

Obama and Lee have agreed to meet at the G20 summit in Canada next month, he said.

Late last week, a team of international investigators accused North Korea of torpedoing the Cheonan corvette in March, killing 46 sailors in one of the deadliest clashes between the two since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Lee said on Monday South Korea would bring the issue before the U.N., whose past sanctions have damaged the already ruined North Korean economy.

The United States still has about 28,000 troops in South Korea to provide military support.

The two Koreas, still technically at war, have more than 1 million troops near their border.

“We will build on an already strong foundation of excellent cooperation between our militaries and explore further enhancements to our joint posture on the Peninsula as part of our ongoing dialogue,” Gibbs said.

Gibbs said the United States supported Lee’s plans to bring the issue to the United Nations Security Council and would work with allies to “reduce the threat that North Korea poses to regional stability.”

Obama had also directed U.S. agencies to evaluate existing policies toward North Korea.

“This review is aimed at ensuring that we have adequate measures in place and to identify areas where adjustments would be appropriate,” he said.

U.S. says “fully supports” S.Korea’s response on warship sinking

WASHINGTON, May 24 (Xinhua) — U.S. President Barack Obama “fully supports” South Korea’s response to the sinking of one of its warships, the White House said Monday.

“U.S. support for South Korea’s defense is unequivocal, and the president has directed his military commanders to coordinate closely with their Republic of Korea counterparts to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression,” the White House said.

The South Korean government said Monday it will hold military drills aimed at deterring what it calls further aggression by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and will put on hold all exchanges and trade with Pyongyang.

A few hours earlier, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said his country will resort to self-defense measures in case of further military provocation from Pyongyang over the sinking of the South Korean warship in late March, which killed 46 sailors near a disputed maritime border between the two countries.

International investigators have earlier concluded in Seoul that the South Korean navy warship was torpedoed by a DPRK submarine and the torpedo was manufactured in the DPRK.

Condemning the DPRK for violating the United Nations Charter and the Korean War Armistice Agreement, Lee said his government will refer the incident to the UN Security Council.

However, the DPRK National Defense Commission rejected as a “fabrication” the South Korean claims that its warship was torpedoed by a DPRK submarine, the DPRK’s KCNA news agency reported.

It (South Korea) finally announced the results of the joint investigation based on a sheer fabrication, which assert that the warship was sunken by our torpedo attack, in a bid to mislead the public opinion,” the KCNA quoted a spokesman for the National Defense Commission as saying.

The spokesman also warned that the DPRK will take tough countermeasures, including an all-out war if new sanctions are imposed on the country.

Also on Monday, the DPRK warned that if South Korea installs propaganda loudspeakers along the border line, the DPRK military would fire at and destroy them.

According to the KCNA, the commander of forces of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) in the central sector of the front issued an open warning to the South Korean authorities that if the South refused to remove the anti-DPRK posters and loudspeakers set up along the Military Demarcation Line, the KPA would “start the firing of direct sighting shots to destroy them.”

The commander stressed that if South Korea continued challenging the DPRK with such moves, the KPA will “eliminate the root cause of the provocations with a stronger physical strike.”

The two Koreas reached a deal in June 2004 that obliges the two sides to stop all propaganda campaigns against each other, including using loudspeaker broadcasting and slogan boards, from Aug. 15 of that year.

But since the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, tensions have notably escalated between the two countries.

Related:

S Korea takes punitive measures against DPRK over warship sinking

SEOUL, May 24 (Xinhua) — South Korea unveiled Monday a series of punitive measures against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) over the sinking of a South Korean naval warship.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak warned in a nationally televised speech that the country will resort to measures of self- defense if the DPRK further wages aggression, saying Pyongyang’s alleged sinking of its 1,200-ton corvette Cheonan in late March resulted from a surprise torpedo attack. Full story

S Korea to resort to self-defense measures against further DPRK provocations

SEOUL, May 24 (Xinhua) — South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said Monday his country will resort to measures of self-defense in case of further military provocation of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), calling Pyongyang’s alleged sinking of its warship in late March work of a surprise torpedo attack.

“North Korea (DPRK) will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts. I will continue to take stern measures to hold the North accountable,” Lee said in a nationally televised speech to the public, a few days after an international team of experts announced that South Korea’s 1,200-ton corvette Cheonan was torpedoed by its wartime rival, killing 46 sailors. Full story

S Korea to take ship sinking case to UN Security Council

SEOUL, May 23 (Xinhua) — South Korea is planning to seek an additional resolution on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea at the United Nations Security Council, following the sinking of South Korea’s warship Cheonan in March, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported Sunday quoting officials here.

“We are focusing on diplomatic means of punishment as we found out that existing sanctions and resolutions are not enough,” a senior government official told Yonhap News Agency. “It is time to decide whether we go over to another step.” Full story

Editor: Tang Danlu

China’s support on Cheonan uncertain: experts

The following are excerpts from expert opinions on likely responses from China and North Korea – Ed.

Baek Seung-joo
North Korean specialist, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses

China unlikely to strongly support Seoul

China appears very cautious in choosing its stance between North Korea, the United States and South Korea.
It will be difficult for China to openly support our investigation results, as that would mean giving up its leverage over North Korea.
The most we can look forward to is getting a blank ballot from the country in the move to impose international sanctions against North Korea.
We will not be able to look forward to full support from Russia, either, in this case.

N. Korea anxious about future sanctions

North Korea appears to be very anxious about what sanctions we could push to impose. The state will likely try to change the situation by evading the point, rather than risk aggravating the circumstances via an additional atomic test.
It will also likely attempt increasing accusations (over the reliability of Seoul’s investigation) by highlighting our refusal to accept its team of investigators.

Bruce Klingner
Senior research fellow for Northeast Asia, The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center

Washington must act to convince Beijing

Beijing will react with its customary call for caution and restraint.
In order to prop up Pyongyang, China is willing to hinder the effectiveness of international sanctions by providing economic benefits to North Korea outside of the conditionality of the six-party talks. By not fully implementing sanctions and by offering alternative sources of revenue, Beijing reduces the likelihood that North Korea will return to the talks.
However, China can be moved beyond its comfort zone, albeit grudgingly and not as far as Washington would prefer. A blatant North Korean provocation — such as the sinking of the Cheonan — could provide South Korea and the U.S. with sufficient leverage to get Beijing to agree to some stronger measures against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should press Beijing strongly in the U.N. Security Council to impose a suitable punishment on North Korea.

Pyongyang to further raise tension

It is likely that the Cheonan sinking is not a singular event, but rather the beginning of a North Korean campaign to raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
It can be expected that North Korea will react strongly to any international effort to punish it. It could even be looking for a strong international response to justify additional belligerent behavior. If that is the case, North Korea will engage in additional provocative behavior, particularly in the run-up to Seoul’s hosting of the G20 summit in November.

Yang Moo-jin
Professor, University of North Korean Studies

China unlikely to help impose sanctions

China is likely to attempt using the incident to increase its influence over North Korea by acting as its sole benefactor.
So naturally, there is little possibility that China will participate in imposing U.N. sanctions upon North Korea. Because China will also continue to financially support North Korea, we will have a hard time coming up with measures that will have an actual negative impact upon the North.
This incident could also change the dynamics on the Korean Peninsula, with the international community lining up either behind Seoul and Washington, or Beijing and Pyongyang. Sometime later in the future, the United States and China could become the center of the peninsula instead of the two Koreas.

Pyongyang to continue in denial

North Korea will likely continue emphasizing its willingness to send its own investigators (to South Korea), a strategy aimed at the international community rather than Seoul. Even if South Korea does not accept the offer, it still has a propaganda effect over the U.N. and the international community, and it knows it.
This incident, if North Korea is really behind it, is entirely different from the country firing missiles and conducting nuclear tests within its own territory. Thus, there is a need to see if the Kim Jong-il regime is still going strong. If this is not the case, we should prepare ourselves for (North Korea’s) positioning that may be completely different from the past. I just hope the North does not make extreme decisions like firing missiles.

Kim Sung-han
Professor of international studies, Korea University

China pressured to act responsibly

China is pressured to remember that this will serve as a test for it to show the international community whether it is ready to serve its role as a responsible leader. If it keeps on siding with North Korea, it will lose reliability among other countries.

North Korea may react with missiles, nuke test

North Korea could react to our stern measures by firing missiles or conducting atomic tests. Via such a move, it will try to reverse the focus from the sinking of Cheonan to its nuclear program, emphasizing that the six-party talks are being delayed due to Seoul. There is a need for us to secure diplomatic cooperation from the international community to make sure North Korea feels the heat and realizes the importance of its relations with Seoul.

No Good Options As Korea Tensions Rise

by Corey Flintoff
May 21, 2010 Tensions between North and South Korea have escalated after an international investigation determined that a North Korean torpedo sank the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan, killing 46 sailors in March.

The dilemma for South Korea, and its close ally, the United States, is how to respond in a way that will punish the North without risking war.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned North Korea on Friday. At a news conference in Tokyo with Japan’s foreign minister, she said “I think it is important to send a clear message to North Korea that provocative actions have consequences.”

Clinton told reporters that it would be premature to give details about a possible response, but she said the response must be international, rather than regional.

North Korea was unequivocal in its response, denying responsibility and saying that any retaliation would mean all-out war.

There are few, if any, good options.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called the sinking a “military provocation,” but added that his government cannot afford to make any mistakes in responding “and will be very prudent in all response measure we take.”

Retaliation Not Feasible Without Risking Wider War

South Korea has a more modern, better-equipped military than the North, backed by some 28,000 U.S. troops. But the close quarters of the two small countries on the Korean Peninsula mean that the South is still vulnerable.

Seoul, the South Korean capital, is within range of artillery from North Korea.

Even the threat of war could hurt South Korea’s economy, which has been boasting a strong recovery from the global recession, by driving off investors.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs stopped short of calling North Korea’s action an act of war, choosing instead to label it an “act of aggression.”

“For the South, it’s pretty clear that there’s not an appetite for a military confrontation,” says Scott Snyder, the director of U.S.-Korea policy at the Asia Foundation.

South Korea is expected to bring the matter to the United Nations Security Council next week, seeking tougher sanctions on the North’s already-restricted trade.

The South Korean news agency, Yonhap News, also quoted government sources as saying the South could block North Korean vessels from using sea routes through South Korean waters.

Investigators Say Evidence Is Overwhelming

The South Korean vessel broke in two and sank after an explosion on March 26, in waters near the border with North Korea. A joint team of civilian and military experts from South Korea, the U.S., Australia, Britain and Sweden said evidence “points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine. There is no other plausible explanation.”

The investigation cited North Korean lettering on torpedo parts that were dredged from the ocean bottom by South Korean trawlers.

North Korea says the evidence was fabricated and denies that it had any part in the Cheonan sinking.

China, the North’s traditional ally, has said it will conduct its own assessment of the findings.

John Park, a Korea expert at the United States Institute of Peace, says the investigation was scientifically conducted, “and about as transparent as these things get,” but he says there’s still a public perception in Asia, and especially in China, that the sinking could have been accident.

If the investigation’s conclusion is true, why would the North risk an act that could provoke open war?

Snyder says the attack could be related to the North’s own internal power struggles over establishing a successor to ailing leader Kim Jung-il.

“Another possibility is that they’ve essentially been caught by technology,” says Snyder. He adds that the North Koreans may not have expected such a thorough investigation into the cause of the sinking.

Snyder says the North Koreans may have thought they could send an aggressive message to the south with an attack that could never have conclusively been pinned on them.

An Attention-Getting Move?

“One of the biggest issues in all this,” Snyder says, “is that the North Koreans feel that South Korea has begun to look past them.” Past South Korean administrations, he says, made the North such a high priority that the North learned it could get economic aid without have to do much in return.

Now, Snyder says, the current government of South Korean has made relations with the North a relatively low priority. “The main motive,” he says, may be “to send a message that you can’t ignore us.”

The investigating team’s report has created a dilemma for the U.S., says Park. “The U.S. is only now getting the beginnings of cooperation with China and Russia on Iran.” At some point, he says, the U.S. may have to decide whether North Korea or Iran is a bigger priority.

Park also calls the situation “the worst possible diplomatic nightmare for China. They need to have good relations with both North Korea and South Korea.”

Park says Chinese leaders have been trying to persuade North Korea to undertake economic reforms through a delicate process of institution building. That process could easily be upset if the North feels that China is favoring its rival to the south.

North Korean rhetoric escalates

As threats of all-out war continue, North Korea’s news agency KCNA has posted several new releases aimed at the “puppet regime” in South Korea.

Stating that the South “far-fetchedly tried to link the case with us without offering any material evidence … in a bid to mislead the public opinion inside and outside Korea,” they demand that “the group of traitors produce … material evidence” and “that there should not be a shred of doubt”.

The North goes on to escalate their threats of war on Seoul. “The all-out war to be undertaken by us will be a sacred war involving the whole nation, all the people and the whole state for completely eliminating the strongholds of the group of traitors.”

The DPRK calls upon the South Korean people to revolt against the current government. The situation “urgently requires the people to turn out in the struggle against dictatorship” says one KCNA statement.

The statements are peppered throughout with references to nuclear threats, ultra-conservative South Koreans, and the aim of global domination on the part of the US. But most of all, they remind the world of their willingness to go to war.

“We will brand any small incident that occurs in the territorial waters, air and land where our sovereignty is exercised including the West Sea of Korea as a provocation of confrontation maniacs and react to it with unlimited retaliatory blow, merciless strong physical blow. It is our invariable iron will to react to “retaliation” with more powerful retaliation and to “punishment” with indiscriminate punishment of our style. Availing ourselves of this opportunity, we sternly warn the U.S. and Japanese authorities and riff-raffs, their poor lackeys, to act with discretion.”

“All the fellow countrymen will never pardon the clique of traitors, which finds fault with fellow countrymen, though it has committed so hideous acts of treachery, and gets frantic with the scheme to bring the dark clouds of a nuclear war, but mete out a stern punishment to it on behalf of the nation.”

Tank company, ROKA 15th div are moving through Kaesungri range before sabot discharge

Clinton Says North Korea Ship Attack Requires Action

By Nicole Gaouette and Takashi Hirokawa

May 21 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean warship “cannot go unanswered” and the response by the international community must not be “business as usual.”

The evidence that North Korea fired a torpedo and sank the ship is “overwhelming and condemning,” Clinton said at a press briefing in Tokyo today with Japan’s Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada. “There must be an international, not just a regional, but an international response.”

The two diplomats offered unqualified support for South Korea after an international panel yesterday issued a report saying evidence provided “conclusive” proof of North Korea’s role in the March 26 sinking, which killed 46 sailors. South Korea’s National Security Council met today as the North threatened to sever all ties and reiterated a threat of war.

“The importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance is increasing as the sinking of the South Korean ship shows the instability” in the region, Okada said.

Clinton stopped in Tokyo for four hours on her way to China where she will take part in talks on climate change, the Afghan war and sanctions to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Okada said Japan is studying an agreement Iran struck with Turkey and Brazil to hand over half of its enriched-uranium stockpile in exchange for fuel. In the meantime, Japan supports the U.S. pursuit of a fourth round of UN sanctions on Iran, he said.

‘Eye to Eye’

“We see eye to eye,” Okada said. Clinton said “the burden is on Iran” to live up to its obligations “or face growing isolation.”

Clinton and Okada also discussed a dispute over where to relocate an American military facility on Okinawa. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who initially called for moving the Futenma Marine Base off the island in response to local sentiment, said earlier this month he will transfer the base within Okinawa, largely in line with a 2006 bilateral agreement.

Clinton said both countries share the same goals on moving the base, and are seeking an “operationally viable and politically sustainable” solution.

Japan and the U.S. will release as early as May 28 a joint agreement on relocating Futenma, the Yomiuri newspaper said today, without citing anyone. Okada today said both sides would make every effort to conclude the matter by the end of the month.

War Threats

South Korea yesterday demanded a “stern” global response the sinking of the 1,200-ton naval vessel Cheonan. Kim Jong Il’s regime, already under UN sanctions for its second nuclear test last year, threatened “all-out war” if the international body imposes additional restrictions.

Tension on the Korean peninsula is overshadowing the planned centerpiece of Clinton’s Asia trip. She and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will be in Beijing May 23-25 to take part in the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

While Geithner will press the Chinese to improve domestic demand and address the value of the yuan, Clinton’s agenda includes climate change, energy security and Iran. She then will go to Seoul to discuss the South Korean report.

The U.S. will be in “deep and constant consultations, not only between the United States and Japan, but also South Korea, China and others to determine our response” to North Korea, Clinton said.

Improving Strained Ties

The talks in China come as both countries are trying to improve ties after strains earlier this year. Chinese censorship of Google Inc., the Mountain View, California-based Internet- search company, a Washington visit by the Dalai Lama and disagreements over China’s currency weighed on relations.

“It felt like both countries went right up to the edge then looked over into the abyss below and backed away from it,” said Taiya Smith, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. “Now the attitude is, we want to be partners, can we use our time at the highest level to engage on issues in ways that are in each countries’ best interests.”

Clinton will start the China portion of her fifth trip to Asia in Shanghai, host to the 2010 World Expo, where she will focus on commercial diplomacy and visit the U.S. pavilion.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nicole Gaouette in Tokyo at ngaouette@bloomberg.net; Takashi Hirokawa in Tokyo at thirokawa@bloomberg.net

North Korea gets blamed; China, South Korea get the mess

(Reuters) – The North Korean torpedo that killed 46 South Korean sailors is rupturing ties across the peninsula, but it is also damaging China’s regional standing and its self-portrayal as a helpful broker between its neighbors.

South Korea said on Thursday international investigators had shown it was a North Korean submarine that sank its navy corvette near the disputed sea border with the North in March.

Isolated, sanctioned and heavily armed, North Korea has for years used apocalyptic threats, a nuclear program and occasional firefights as a means to keep its dynastic ruler in power despite deepening economic misery.

An international storm of condemnation has broken out over the sinking, but the tight lipped-response of China, North Korea’s sole supporter, looks to some like a snub to a worried region and a lost opportunity to assert influence.

“The North Korea issue is an absolutely crucial test of whether China has what it takes to be a world leader,” said Lee Jung-hoon, a Yonsei University professor of international relations.

“Depending on how it handles it, it can demonstrate itself as a true global leader or otherwise it will simply remain a socialist giant.”

Beijing has called the ship sinking “unfortunate” and refused to be drawn into the condemnation of Pyongyang and its leader Kim Jong-il, whom it hosted earlier this month on a rare trip abroad, to the irritation of South Korea.

For China, say some analysts, the priority is to prop up Kim rather than risk the North imploding in chaos that would spill into its territory and, perhaps, lead to South Korea and its ally the United States moving right up to its border.

But that risks undermining Beijing attempts to play more of a role as a great power in the region and is already hurting ties with South Korea, one of its leading trade partners.

“This is a big dilemma for China, but it would be unrealistic to expect China to line up behind South Korea so soon after Kim Jong-il’s visit,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international security at Renmin University who follows Korean affairs.

“The price that China will pay will be its regional influence, especially over South Korea. It will have some impact on that influence … now regional governments may feel that Chinese foreign policy is out of balance.”

INTENSE EFFORTS

For more than a decade, China has devoted intense diplomatic efforts to cultivating its Asian neighbors — assiduously attending an endless round of summits, sending top leaders on regular bilateral trips, and presenting its idea of a “harmonious world” as a cure for all ills.

Now that harmony has taken a blow.

One early victim could be attempts by Beijing to resume North Korea denuclearization talks among regional powers which it has long hosted but which Pyongyang has boycotted for over a year.

South Korea, Japan and the United States have all made clear that they see little point in resuming talks and effectively helping the North.

South Korea itself is mindful that however angry it may feel, it cannot afford to strike back at the North. Investors, vital to Asia’s fourth largest economy, have long tolerated the animosity between the Koreas but only as long as they feel the threat of actual war is remote.

Indeed, President Lee Myung-bak refused to blame the North in the aftermath of the attack on the corvette and waited for the report by an international team of investigators, despite widespread anger in the South.

And although it feels justified now to step up the rhetoric against Pyongyang, the prosperous South has reason to be terrified of a collapse of the North.

Sudden, and forced, unification would force it to bear the cost of absorbing 23 million North Koreans who have little idea of how modern business works and whose own economy barely functions.

It is also painfully aware that its very open economy can quickly see investors flee at the sight of major risk.

The South is offering major investment across the border to reduce the pain of what it believes will be eventual unification.

But for the North’s leadership that would require what analysts say would be unacceptable acquiescence to Seoul and put at risk its own legitimacy, based largely on its perceived ability to fend off a hostile world even it means abject poverty for the masses.

Ultimately, Seoul may have miscalculated the propensity of Pyongyang to take differences to the brink.

“It shows that we failed to manage the way North Korea inherently is … it is in their nature to wage provocations,” said Cho Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification